Walleye Playoff Preview: Crunch Time!
2023-06-29
The AHL playoffs are just around the corner, and the Toledo Walleye are finally back in the dance after a four-year absence stretching back to their days as the Bridgeport Sound Tigers.
Through myriad changes to the roster in 2022-23, the Walleye put together a 41-win campaign, good enough for second place in the North Division, and now they have their sights set on making a darkhorse playoff run.
Their opponents in the first round, the Syracuse Crunch, ended a playoff drought of their own last season, but suffered a hard-fought first-round defeat. This year they'll be looking for more after recording 40 wins and posting the second-best point total in franchise history.
Can the Walleye take another step after breaking their playoff hex? Or will the Crunch use last year's experience as a springboard to greater things?
OFFENSE
Goals Per Game: 3.06 (19th)
Key Players: Ryan McLeod, Kieffer Bellows, Glenn Gawdin
Goals Per Game: 3.42 (4th)
Key Players: Noah Cates, Antti Suomela, Arthur Kaliyev
The Walleye's 5v5 offense was anything but formidable in 2022-23, as they ranked a meagre 19th in the AHL in both goals and shots. Center Ryan McLeod did finish 9th in league scoring, and free-agent addition Glenn Gawdin chipped in a tidy 53 points, but it appears the Crunch have a decisive edge here, finishing 4th in goals, 5th in shots, and boasting five players with 50 points or more.
DEFENSE
Goals Against Per Game: 2.79 (7th)
Key Players: Matt Kiersted, Alec Regula
Goals Against Per Game: 2.99 (11th)
Key Players: Ty Smith, Cale Fleury
In terms of raw goals against, the Walleye outperformed the Crunch to the tune of one quarter of a goal per game. That's a fairly narrow margin, and at 31.5 shots against per game for Toledo compared to 31.4 for San Antonio, neither team appears set to overwhelm the other on the shot clock. Where the Crunch probably have a leg up is at the top end of their d-corps, where the Smith/Fleury duo is more likely to break open a game than the pair of Kiersted and Regula
GOALTENDING
Projected Starter: Stuart Skinner
Key Stats: 58 GP, 35 W, 0.920 Sv%
Projected Starter: Cayden Primeau
Key Stats: 47 GP, 29 W, 0.907 Sv%
It's no exaggeration to say that without Stuart Skinner, the Walleye would likely have missed the playoffs altogether. In his third (and likely final) AHL season, Skinner finished 2nd in the league with a save percentage of .920, and singlehandedly won many games along the way—as evidenced by the fact that he also finished 2nd in shots against with 1791 in 58 games. Meanwhile, Cayden Primeau was no slouch for Syracuse, with a steady .907 Sv% and 29 wins across 46 starts. If a goalie happens to steal this series, however, it appears likely it will be the one tending twine for the Walleye.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Powerplay: 16.4% (28th)
Penalty Kill: 84.1% (4th)
Powerplay: 22.5% (1st)
Penalty Kill: 82.0% (13th)
The Walleye's powerplay was a sore point all year, putting together the odd hot streak but ultimately finishing almost dead last in efficiency. The Crunch, meanwhile, had the deadliest powerplay in the league, and were one of only two teams to finish with a strike rate above 22% (almost two percent better than the 3rd-place team). The Walleye somewhat made up for their man-advantage incompetence by killing 84.1% of their shorthanded situations, a reasonable distance ahead of the Crunch and their 82% PK.
OUTLOOK
Unsurprisingly for a 2-3 divisional showdown, all signs point to this being a very tight matchup. It's fair to say that Syracuse has more game-breakers among skaters who will see the ice in this series, but Toledo can counter with a gamebreaker of their own in the net.
Championship experience may be a factor as well, with Walleye GM Kyle Phillips having won two Calder Cups during his time in San Jose. At the same time Justin Tang shouldn't be underestimated, as he has put a premium on creating a winning environment in Syracuse.
Judging by the numbers, it could well be that special teams will decide the series—the question is whether offense or defense will win the day in that regard. The prediction here is that the Walleye will sneak past the Crunch in 5 games thanks to a heroic goaltending performance by their star netminder.
This rocks how you broke it down!
Walleye Playoff Preview: Crunch Time!