Barracuda Playoff Preview: Bull Rush!
2020-06-07
The AHL playoffs are just around the corner, and the San Jose Barracuda head into the postseason as the two-time defending Calder Cup champs. Standing in their way will be the San Antonio Rampage, an exceptionally young squad looking to take the next step after advancing to the second round last season.
The Barracuda won't surrender their crown without a fight, of course, but cracks are beginng to show in the foundation of this proto-dynasty. Do the current Cup holders have another title run in them? Or will the up-and-coming Rampage prove that there's a new game in town?
OFFENSE
Goals Per Game: 3.37 (2nd)
Key Players: Carter Verhaeghe, Christian Fischer, Francis Perron
Goals Per Game: 3.07 (14th)
Key Players: Dale Weise, Alex Volkov, Nathan Walker
The Barracuda produced offense at an elite rate this year, ranking 2nd in the league with 3.37 goals per game, solidly ahead of the 14th-ranked Rampage. The 'Cuda also topped the league in shots per game with 33.9, while the Rampage came in 13th with 31.3. Taken together those numbers point to an advantage for the Barracuda, though certainly not an overwhelming one. The decisive edge might come down to which team's star player finds a way to produce in the playoffs: San Antonio's Dale Weise, who finished 3rd in AHL scoring with 71 points; or San Jose's Carter Verhaeghe, who placed 6th with 70.
DEFENSE
Goals Against Per Game: 2.87 (9th)
Key Players: Carl Dahlstrom, Ryan Sproul
Goals Against Per Game: 3.08 (21st)
Key Players: Ethan Bear, Ben Thomas
In terms of raw goals against, the Barracuda outperformed the Rampage to the tune of one quarter of a goal per game. That's a fairly narrow margin, and at 28.8 SA/PG for San Jose compared to 30.2 for San Antonio, neither side is likely to overwhelm the other on the shot clock. Where the 'Cuda probably have a leg up is in a battle-tested blueline that, on paper at least, appears considerably deeper than what the Rampage can throw over the boards.
GOALTENDING
Projected Starter: Antoine Bibeau
Key Stats: 41 GP, 0.908 Sv%
Projected Starter: Kasimir Kaskisuo
Key Stats: 50 GP, 0.897 Sv%
The Barracuda took a big risk this season when they dealt away #1B goalie Alex Lyon, pinning their championship hopes on starter Antoine Bibeau's ability to navigate the entire playoffs with no safety net. By the numbers, that task doesn't seem too daunting against the Rampage, who recieved sub .900 goaltending from starter Kasimir Kaskisuo. If San Antonio hopes to win the series, they will need a tremendous—and unlikely—performance from either Kaskisuo or backup Callum Booth.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Powerplay: 16.9% (24th)
Penalty Kill: 79.4% (26th)
Powerplay: 15.6% (29th)
Penalty Kill: 79.6% (24th)
It doesn't look like this series will break any special teams records, given that both squads finished in the bottom fourth of the league on both the PP and PK. That might mean, however, that one team could gain a major advantage if they can even marginally improve on their regular season performance.
OUTLOOK
Judging by the raw stats, the Barracuda come out on top in almost every category, which makes sense considering where the two teams finished in the standings. The numbers could be deceiving, however, given all the changes to San Jose's roster throughout the season. And the Rampage, while probably not as deep across the board, undoubtedly have the top-end talent to stand toe-to-toe with the defending champs. Look for the Barracuda to gut out a victory in four games, but don't be shocked if this one goes the distance.